I recently stumbled upon a fascinating new website called WeatherPromise, and I have to admit – it's got me thinking. The concept is brilliantly simple: buy insurance against bad weather on your holiday, and if it rains more than expected, you get your money back. Automatically. No claims, no paperwork, no arguing with customer service.
It's essentially a prediction market for sunshine, and as someone who's had more than a few beach days ruined by unexpected downpours, I'm genuinely intrigued.
How Does WeatherPromise Work?
The premise is refreshingly straightforward. When you book a trip – either through one of WeatherPromise's partner platforms or directly on their website – you can purchase a weather guarantee. Each offer is customised based on your destination, travel dates, and the value of your trip.
Here's where it gets clever: WeatherPromise uses data from official government weather sources including NASA, NOAA, ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), and Japan's JAXA. They're monitoring over 350 million data points daily from satellites, weather stations, and radar systems. This isn't some amateur operation checking BBC Weather every morning.
If your trip experiences more rain than the threshold specified in your contract – typically measured as hours of rainfall above a certain intensity (usually 1-1.5mm per hour) – you receive an automatic payout. No need to file a claim. No photographs of soggy sandcastles required.
What Does It Cost?
According to various reports, WeatherPromise typically costs between 3% and 8% of your total trip value. The exact price depends on several factors: destination, time of year, historical weather patterns, and trip duration.
To give you some real-world examples I've seen quoted:
A £1,500 trip to Venice for three days in late June might cost around £110 to protect, with a full refund triggered by just one hour of rain between 8am and 8pm.
A two-week Thailand trip worth £7,500 during the monsoon season might cost around £375, triggering a full refund if it rains on five or more days.
A five-day Ireland trip worth £3,750 in December (the rainiest month) might cost around £325 for protection.
The Big Names Are Getting On Board
What caught my attention is the calibre of partners already working with WeatherPromise. In June 2025, Marriott International became the first global hotel company to offer the service through their Homes & Villas by Marriott Bonvoy platform – a significant endorsement for any travel product.
JetBlue Vacations also partnered with them earlier this year, offering rain protection on flight and hotel packages. VRBO and HomeToGo have integrated the service into their booking flows as well.
The reviews on Trustpilot are genuinely impressive – countless stories of families receiving full refunds after rainy beach holidays, with payouts typically processed within 24-48 hours of the trip ending.
The Catch (There's Always a Catch)
Here's the current limitation for us UK-based travellers: while WeatherPromise covers trips anywhere in the world, purchases through their major partners (Marriott, JetBlue, VRBO) are currently limited to US residents.
However, you can purchase directly through purchase.weatherpromise.com for any trip globally. I'd recommend checking their terms carefully regarding eligibility in your region, but the direct purchase option appears to be more widely available.
HomeToGo has been testing the product in their German market, which suggests European expansion is on the cards. I wouldn't be surprised to see UK-specific partnerships announced in 2025.
A Prediction Market for Weather – Is It Worth It?
This is where things get interesting from a strategic perspective. WeatherPromise isn't traditional travel insurance – it doesn't cover cancellations, delays, or lost luggage. You still take your trip regardless of the weather. What you're really doing is hedging against disappointment.
Think of it like a prediction market where you're essentially betting against good weather. WeatherPromise is using historical data to calculate the probability of rain and pricing their guarantees accordingly. If the weather is better than they predicted, they keep your premium. If it's worse, they pay out.
For certain trips, this makes genuine sense:
Beach holidays where rain literally ruins the entire point of the trip.
Special occasions – honeymoons, milestone birthdays, anniversary trips – where you've saved specifically for good weather.
Shoulder season travel where you're taking a calculated risk on weather to save money.
Outdoor activity-focused trips – hiking in the Alps, safari in Africa, or golf weekends.
My Honest Take
I'll be honest – as a Brit, I've developed something of a philosophical acceptance of rain on holiday. But this product genuinely appeals to the data-obsessed, value-maximising part of my brain.
If I was booking a once-in-a-lifetime trip to the Maldives or spending a small fortune on a beach villa in the Caribbean, paying 5% extra to know I'd get my money back if it rained? That's genuinely compelling.
For a quick city break where rain doesn't really matter (hello, museums and cafés), probably not worth it.
The beauty of the automatic payout system is that it removes all the friction associated with traditional insurance claims. You're not spending your rainy holiday photographing evidence and filling out forms – you just check your dashboard and wait for the money to arrive.
Would I Try It?
Honestly? Yes, I think I would – for the right trip. If UK availability expands as expected, I could see myself adding this to a summer beach holiday or an outdoor adventure trip where weather genuinely makes or breaks the experience.
There's something psychologically appealing about knowing that either way, you win: great weather or a refund. It's the kind of product that reduces decision anxiety, and for travellers who obsess over weather forecasts in the lead-up to a trip (guilty as charged), that peace of mind has real value.
What do you think? Would you pay 3-5% extra to guarantee either sunshine or your money back? I'd love to hear your thoughts – reply to this email or drop a comment and let me know if this is something you'd consider for your next holiday.
Until next time – may your skies be clear and your upgrades plentiful!
Jack
